Brian C. O'Neill
Associate Professor (Research):
Watson Institute for International Studies
Phone:
bconeill@brown.edu
Brian O'Neill's area of interest include: global climate change, population-environment interactions, and links between the science and policy of environmental issues.
Biography
Brian O'Neill is an Associate Professor (Research) in the Global Environment Program at the Watson Institute for International Studies. He is currently on partial leave of absence at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria, where he is the Leader of the Population and Climate Change (PCC) Program and a co-Leader of the Greenhouse Gas Initiative, an interdisciplinary research activity on climate change involving collaboration across seven IIASA research programs. In 2004, he received a European Young Investigator (EURYI) award from the European Science Foundation, which provides principal funding for the PCC Program.
He holds a PhD in Earth Systems Science and an MS in Applied Science, both from New York University, and spent two years as a staff scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund (an environmental NGO) before coming to Brown in 1998. His research interests are in population-environment interactions and the science and policy of global climate change, and he has published in a variety of journals, including Science, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science–USA, and Population and Development Review. He served as a lead author for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in a volume on future scenarios for ecosystem services and human well being, and is also currently serving as a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, in a volume on impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability.
Interests
My research focuses on integrated assessment of climate change. Given the disparate aspects of the climate problem – from socio-economic drivers of greenhouse gas emissions, to changes in the climate system, to political and economic response strategies – there is a strong need for integrative studies that can inform policy processes. I seek to address this need by advancing the field of integrated assessment in three areas: (1) understanding links between demography, energy and emissions, (2) approaches to accounting for uncertainty and learning (i.e., changes in uncertainty over time), and (3) analysis of medium-term strategies that keep open long-term policy options while uncertainties are reduced. For example, in the demography, energy, and emissions area a case study of the United States has demonstrated the potential effects of aging on future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis, carried out with several collaborators, involved the construction of a new set of household projections for the U.S. that quantifies how much the age structure of households might shift over the next 50-100 years. In addition, new methodology was developed to introduce age structure and household size into an energy-economic growth model. Emissions scenarios quantified using the new model show that in some cases, aging could reduce future emissions in the U.S. by as much as a third, relative to what would be expected if aging were ignored. Ongoing work is examining the influence of urbanization on future energy use and emission in China and India.
My work on uncertainty and learning examines the implications of learning (or changes in uncertainty over time) for climate change policy. The anticipation that we will learn more over time plays a key role in climate policy debates, particularly over the appropriate timing of emissions reduction policies. One ongoing area of interest is the global carbon cycle, where we are investigating how much and how fast uncertainty in future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations might change as we learn more about the functioning of the carbon cycle. A second area of active research examines the potential for anticipating how uncertainty in future population projection may change, and its implications for future greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, in the area of medium-term response strategies, I am investigating options for climate policy strategies over the next 30-50 years that help link potential long-term climate change targets to short-term actions. Currently, the ultimate objective of international climate policy is to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases in the long term at a level that is not dangerous. Agreement on such a goal is unlikely to occur soon given the substantial uncertainties in long-term climate change outcomes and political differences among parties to the FCCC. Therefore, strategies for the interim period are needed that keep long-term options open while uncertainties are reduced through learning.
Degrees
Ph.D, New York University
Awards
European Science Foundation, European Young Investigators (EURYI) Award, a five-year, ~$1.2 million award for proposed research.
National Science Foundation/International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, funding for participation in IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program. Summer 1996.
Santa Fe Institute, Fellowship to attend summer program on complexity in ecological and economic systems. Summer, 1994.
New York University, MacCracken and University Fellowships for graduate education. 1991 - 1996.
Affiliations
International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
Population Association of America
American Geophysical Union
Teaching
Previous courses taught (currently on leave):
BI 244 Global Environmental Change Seminar (Joint with 4 other faculty)
ES 12 Science in Environmental Issues
ES 136 Modeling Global Environmental Issues
Global Climate Change, 2-week short course within the Watson International Scholars of the Environment program
ES 95 Junior Environmental Seminar
Funded Research
European Science Foundation, European Young Investigators (EURYI) Award. Demography, uncertainty, and learning in integrated assessment models of climate change, €937,686 (~$1,163,000). 2005-2009. PI.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Households, consumption, and energy use: The role of demographic change in future U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, $278,000. 2002-2005. PI.
The Foundation for the Future, Future global energy use: lessons from the past, $10,000. 2003-2005. PI.
U.S. Department of Energy, DE-FG02-01ER63216, Improving demographic components of integrated assessment models, $446,031. 2001-2005. PI.
National Institute on Aging, 1 R03 AG19240-01, The influence of aging on U.S. energy consumption, $78,628. 2001-2002 (no-cost extension through 2003). PI.
Compton Foundation, Population growth and global warming: Implications of implementing the Cairo Program of Action, $10,000. (subcontractor; J. Bongaarts, principal investigator). 1998-1999.