Implications for Climate Change

            Predictions for climate change in India are that temperature will increase 0.7 to 1.0°C by 2040 from 1980 temperatures (McLean et al., 1998).  Due to the extent to which the variability in malaria prevalence in many districts of Karnataka was predicted by mean temperature, an increase in mean temperature, as predicted by the IPCC, would be expected to reduce malaria prevalence.  Does this imply that efforts should be focused on increasing greenhouse gas emissions in order to decrease malaria rates in Karnataka?  Due to the many other factors involved and the many other problems posed by greenhouse gases to other systems, this may not be the best idea.

The specific districts that were more strongly correlated with climatic variables such as Shimoga, Dharwad, Chikmagalur, and Chitradurga and Hassan, are more likely to be affected by climate change, whereas those districts that are not as strongly correlated, malaria prevalence is more likely more strongly correlated with non-climatic factors.

            The predicted increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events for Tropical Asia and the significant correlation between precipitation and malaria prevalence, implies that this climate change may also affect malaria prevalence, most likely with an increase in malaria due the preponderance of positive correlation coefficients.  If more studies of this nature, especially ones done at a smaller spatial scale, are done, given the ability to predict increased extreme rainfall events, it may be possible to predict increases in malaria prevalence and possibly epidemics.