Rhode Island Drought Management:
CONCLUSIONS AND QUANDARIES
Where does this leave us? Probably in pretty darn close the same spot we were in when we started. It is impossible to draw from these data anything conclusive, but there are some area's worth exploring. For example, the indices yield very different results as measured by the Conditions...but yet all are highly dependent upon rainfall. Why is this? Clearly the PDI (scaled by the Conditions) is less sensitive than the Streamflow Index, or even the Reservoir Index. Does it make sense to have such disparate indices when formulating policy? I would guess it does...there is little benefit from redundancy beyond confirmation of the primary indicator. So if the algorithm for the PDI is less sensitive to the inputs measured by the other indices, does that make it more or less valuable? After all, it didn't even register for the drought of 1999. Food for thought--but clearly there is room for more, and less, sensitive indicators.
How should the official Drought Condition be determined? The draft Plan calls for a statewide response for all levels above Condition III (Watch), but just how often does this place us in a Drought Condition? Using just the four indicators, here's a look at the 1990's:
This tells us that we would spend quite a bit of time in a statewide Drought Condition above level III if these indicators are used as they are here. What is missing are the actions taken during the 1990's...and if those actions had any impact on the Drought Condition. This is a major weakness of this site--the lack of historical data regarding when drought conditions were felt, what actions were taken, and if they had any effect.
Is there a benefit to statewide Drought assessment? To answer that question there is still more work to be done. This is just a glimpse at the indices and the way that they have behaved statewide. To make any sort of judgment, a similar (and hopefully more comprehensive) study should be carried out for drought conditions evaluated regionally rather than in aggregate. It would be interesting to look at what percentage of the state falls under different Drought Conditions, and then determine if the desired response level is more logically local or statewide.
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