Commercial Waste Projections

CURRENT STATUS OF COMMERCIAL WASTE GENERATION

Commercial Waste - Tons Disposed at Central Landfill

Source: RI Resource Recovery Corporation

There are two key differences in assessing the status of commercial and municipal waste management. The first is that the quantity of commercial waste disposed at Central Landfill has fluctuated significantly over the last several years, compared to the relatively constant flow of municipal waste. The second key difference is that there is much less data characterizing commercial recycling than municipal recycling. The reasons for these differences are straightforward: 1)RIRRC has no control over the flow of commercial waste, and so the quantities that are disposed at State Landfill are dependent on the regional disposal marketplace; and 2) commercial recycling occurs in a non-centralized fashion making data difficult to localize. As a result of these differences, the estimation of the current status of commercial waste management is less exact.

Source: RI Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Plan

The graph to the right shows the month-by-month quantities of commercial waste disposed at State Landfill from 1987-1994. This graph is designed to show the range of quantities that have been disposed at the State Landfill in the recent past. It can be seen that there are two ranges into which the quantities fall. In 1987 and 1988 commercial waste disposal was relatively high, and in 1990, 1991 and 1993 waste disposal was relatively low. Disposal quantities for 1994 do not fall into either range. In the first half of 1994 disposal quantities were extraordinarily low, but in the last half of 1994 waste quantities were higher than they have been in six years. These trends are mirrored in the figures graphed above.

In 1995 and 1996, Rhode Island was a net exporter of commercial waste. By 1997, Central Landfill's rates were well below the regional market rate, as such, the landfill continues to receive almost 100 percent of the state's commercial waste stream. This trend accounts for the sharp and steady rise in commercial disposal rates. The disposal quantities for 1998 were extraordinarily high due to an excessive amount of waste received from out-of-state. RI can no longer accept waste from out-of-state, as such the waste disposed in 1999, has decreased. Although it is difficult to determine where the waste is actually generated, the state's total load has leveled off at approximately 600,000 tons.

COMMERCIAL WASTE PROJECTIONS

Commercial Waste Stream Projections through 2015

Source: RI Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Plan

Commercial waste generation is projected in exactly the same fashion as municipal waste generation, with the only difference being that employment is used as the key factor instead of population. With an estimated statewide employment of 489,800, the commercial waste generation rate is 1.26 tons per employee per year. This rate is projected to increase in the same fashion as the municipal waste generation rate: 0.5 percent per year from 1995 to 2000, 0.3 percent per year from 2001 through 2005, 0.1 percent per year from 2006 through 2010, and no increase from 2011 through 2015. Commercial waste generation is projected to increase from 615,900 tons in 1995 to 682,500 tons in 2015. In 1995, it was estimated that 615,900 tons of commercial waste would be disposed. In 1995, Central Landfill received approximately 373,969 tons. This is only 60 percent of the estimated total. The commercial waste projections were high in the mid-1990's. However, the Comprehensive Plan underestimated the disposal quantities for 1997 to present. The quantities for commercial waste are difficult to estimate because of fluctuating market rates, illegal out-of-state waste, net exporting, and industrial recycling.

(Source: RI Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Plan)

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