Monitoring Greenhouse
Gas Emissions in Russia:
A Foundation for Climate Accountability
lya Popov
seuilya@hotmail.com
Russia ratified the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1994 and signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1999. The Convention requires countries to create inventories of greenhouse gases (GHG). The Kyoto Protocol that is not yet ratified also requires countries to create national system to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and establishes several mechanisms that allow countries to reduce emissions jointly. The thesis analyses the only currently available emission projections for carbon dioxide emissions and shows that since 1990 they have dropped substantially and unlikely will grow until 2008-2012, the first commitment period. Therefore, Russia is an important country for climate change mitigation and will be a potential seller of emission reductions in the future. If Russia is not able to estimate emissions carefully, the trust to international negotiations will be undermined.
The thesis answers the question whether Russia can create a reliable GHG monitoring system and how Russia can do this in a practical way. The thesis analyzes Russian experience with compiling greenhouse gas emission inventories and comes to the conclusion that although Russia has experience with estimating greenhouse gas emissions, current estimates do not cover all gases and provide only general information about emissions on a very aggregated level. In addition, existing inventories are not transparent because information about emissions is not widely available. At the same time, agencies that are responsible for monitoring GHG emissions already exist in Russia, These agencies are also responsible for monitoring other substances and this experience can be useful for constructing a future monitoring system. The thesis looks at these agencies and comes to a conclusion that coordination between them are not well defined and several agencies very often collect the same information.
The thesis suggests that one agency - State Committee for Environmental Protection - should be responsible for collecting and storing information and do this electronically. The Committee has already experience with monitoring harmful emissions and collects and publishes a lot of information about air pollution from industries. To speed up a process of creating its own monitoring system, Russia can adopt features of other international or national monitoring systems that already function properly. The thesis analyses several such systems including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Acid Rain Program, identifies the most important for Russia features from these systems, and suggests how Russia can adopt them. The thesis suggests that Russia should use the IPCC Guidelines and create sectoral inventories. Russia should also report emissions in a standardized format that the IPCC developed.
Two GHGs - carbon dioxide and methane - contribute the largest share to Russia's emissions. More than half of methane emissions come from the natural gas sector. While estimates of carbon dioxide emissions are more accurate, none of Russian studies provide good estimates of methane emissions. To prove this, the thesis analyses governmental studies and studies conducted by EPA and the German natural gas company Ruhrgas in cooperation with the Russian natural gas joint stock company "Gazprom" (Gazprom). The government studies use the IPCC Guidelines to estimate methane emissions.
Fnfortunately, the IPCC Guidelines can not help Russia to estimate methane emissions carefully because emission factors are not clearly defined for the country. EPA introduces more rigorous methods to estimate emissions that were adopted by EPA and Gas Research Institute for estimating methane emissions in the U.S and include careful measuring of emissions. The thesis in detail analyses this experience and comes to the conclusion that it is applicable to Russia. Because EPA's and Gazprom measurements covered only a few components, the thesis proposes that more measurements should be conducted. This task will be easier in Russia because Gazprom controls the largest part of the sector. Because Gazprom already has experience with monitoring other harmful subsidies, it should be responsible for monitoring methane emissions.
The thesis comes to the conclusion that Russia is capable in creating a reliable monitoring system but it will take time and effort. It is also important that Russia includes estimates of uncertainties into designing a future monitoring system. It is especially important for methane emissions because their estimates are highly uncertain.